Your ArkLaTex Weather Authority Team

Sunny and warm Tuesday, heavy rain possible over the next week

Weather

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – After a very cold morning, our Tuesday afternoon will turn into one of the warmest days we’ve had so far in 2021. Enjoy the tranquil and sunny weather today, rain returns in the upcoming days and will be sticking around through the weekend and into next week.

Tuesday is looking great. We’ll start out with a chill as sunrise temperatures will be in the 30s, but we will warm quickly into the 60s by 11 a.m., with highs in the low to mid-70s this afternoon. The sunshine combined with a south breeze will bring the big warm-up today. Wind will be out of the southwest at 10 miles per hour this afternoon.

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We are done with freezing temperatures for the next week. Clouds will increase overnight along with a steady south breeze and lows will be in the upper 40s and low 50s. Highs will be in the upper 60s and low 70s with increasing clouds Wednesday. There will be a slight chance for rain late Wednesday, but the showers will hold off until Thursday for most of us.

The weather pattern will turn rainy on us by late Thursday, with rain sticking around through the weekend and into early next week. The rain will come through in at least 3 different rounds. 

Potential rainfall accumulations through next Tuesday


Round 1 (Thursday p.m. through early Friday):
A cold front will approach the region Thursday, with a few scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms picking up as soon as Thursday afternoon. The rain will increase Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as the front stalls across the region. The severe weather threat with this first round will be low as we lack the upper-level ingredients for strong to severe storms. Rainfall accumulations will average half an inch.

Round 2 (Saturday into Sunday): We may have a brief break from rain and thunderstorms early Saturday, but our next upper-level disturbance will stall a warm front over the region Saturday afternoon into Sunday. It appears rain could be ongoing for much of the day Sunday, especially across the northern ArkLaTex. This system has more in the way of ingredients that could lead to a few strong thunderstorms, but this is not a certainty given we are still 5 to 6 days away. Rainfall accumulations could be between 1 to 3 inches. 

Round 3 (Monday into Tuesday): A third disturbance early next week may bring widespread rain Monday into Tuesday. As of right now, the severe weather threat looks low, but the potential for another round of rain is high. We could see an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain bringing total accumulations Thursday through the middle of next week in the 4 to 6-inch range. Flash flooding will become a concern late in the weekend and into next week if this forecast pans out.


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