Sunshine to stick around through Thanksgiving; rain this weekend leads to possible first freeze early next week

Weather

Thanksgiving Day is looking mostly sunny and pleasant.  Models have backed off dramatically on the amount of rain we could see late this week.  The coldest air of the season on the way early next week.  Our first freeze of the season still looks possible Monday night.

Wednesday was a mostly sunny and mild day.  The high for the day actually occurred ahead of the cold front last night.  Daytime temperatures have struggled to make it into the low to middle 60s.  Expect a clear sky Wednesday night as we will see temperatures dip to near-normal levels in the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Despite the chilly start Thursday morning, Thanksgiving day will see a big warm-up as temperatures will soar into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Our next disturbance will begin to move into the southern Rockies by Thursday night and Friday.  It still looks promising that this system will bring rain to our area from Thursday night into Sunday.  We continue to see a trend in the models that shows less rain for our area than earlier projected.  As of right now, it appears that we will see anywhere from one to two inches of rain for most of the area.  Rainfall totals could exceed three inches over the southern quarter of the area well south of Interstate 20.   Instability should be lacking in our area.  We could hear a few rumbles of thunder, but severe weather is looking unlikely at this point.

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Once this system finally clears our area, we will see a rather cold and dry weather pattern set up for most of next week.  Sunshine will return Monday, but despite that sunshine, highs will only be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.  That will set the stage for the coldest night of the season so far Monday night.  Areas that have not seen their first freeze yet, will have a good chance of doing so as overnight lows will dip into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Most of next week is looking dry as we will have to keep an eye on one disturbance that will move in late Wednesday into Thursday.  As of right now, rain chances look slim.  This system will serve to reinforce the chilly air in place.  Consequently, highs next week will mainly be in the 50s.  Overnight lows will mainly be in the 30s.  The longer-range weather picture shows that we could see highs stay below normal through most of the following week.  

Happy Thanksgiving! 

–Todd Warren

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