Your ArkLaTex Weather Authority Team

The 2021 hurricane forecast calls for another above average season

Weather

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – On the heels of a record level 2020 hurricane season, the 2021 season is expected to be busy. The hurricane forecast calls for 13-20 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. Earlier this month, NOAA updated the average number of named storms from 12 to 14 and hurricanes from six to seven.

Last year, the tropical Atlantic was under the influence of a strong La Nina. Currently, we are moving out of La Nina conditions into an ENSO neutral phase. The neutral phase doesn’t increase or significantly decrease hurricane activity. The experts say it is a chance La Nina conditions could return for the second half of hurricane season. “Based on the current data and analysis, we do not expect the 2021 hurricane season to be as active as 2020,” said NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s Matthew Rosencrans.

NOAA is bolstering its technology to ensure more accurate tropical forecasts. “We have upgraded our flagship GFS system known as the American model. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are using an upgraded storm surge model is known as P-Surge to better predict tropical cyclone wind structure and storm size,” said NOAA’s Acting Administrator Ben Friedman.

Hurricane season begins on June 1st! Now is the time to form a plan in case a tropical cyclone impact the ArkLaTex! Hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.

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