4 pm Thursday Cristobal update: NHC forecast track shifts west..several inches of rain possible Monday and Monday night

Weather

Expect the hot and mainly dry conditions to continue through the weekend. It still appears that Tropical Storm Cristobal will move to the east of the ArkLaTex Monday. The 4 pm advisory from the National Hurricane Center indicates that Cristobal will likely be a depression as it moves into the SE edge of our area Monday afternoon. The southeast half of the area should expect to see anywhere from two to three inches of rain with a few isolated 4″ totals possible. The rest of the area will see anywhere from one to two inches of rain.

We will probably see wind speeds over the southeast half of the area in the 20 to 30 mph range. Impacts from the wind should be rather isolated. It also appears that the main tornado threat will be to the east of our area given the current projected path. Thus, our main concern with Cristobal will be the potential for heavy rain. Keep in mind that more adjustments to this outlook are still likely. Some models do show the storm moving as far west as Shreveport. Stay tuned!

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Thursday was another partly cloudy and hot day as rain has been rather limited. Don’t expect any change in our weather through the weekend. We’ll see the mix of sunshine and clouds continue with little or no rainfall. Daytime highs from now through Sunday will likely stay in the low to middle 90s. Overnight lows will likely stay in the low to middle 70s.

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Cristobal was downgraded to a tropical depression earlier this morning. The system continues to spin over Mexico but is forecast to begin to move north back over the Gulf of Mexico Friday. This will allow the system to strengthen as it moves north through the Gulf this weekend. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center hasn’t changed too much. As of this writing, it appears that the system could move through Northeast Louisiana.

This is good news for our area as the heaviest rain will be near and to the east of the storm’s path. Parts of our area could still receive some heavy rain with totals of two to three inches over the eastern third of the area. The middle third that includes Shreveport and Texarkana should expect one to two inches. The western third of the area will likely receive totals of less than an inch. The rain threat will likely begin Sunday night over the southeastern edge of the area and spread north Monday and Monday night. The system will likely be a depression by the time it reaches NE LA. That means that any wind threat for our area on the west side of its circulation should be low. It is still possible that the storm could take a more westerly course into the ArkLaTex as some global models indicate. This means that current projections of Cristobal’s path through our region are not set in stone. I would not be surprised the see the NHC outlook shift west this afternoon or evening.

Any leftover rain from Cristobal will quickly end Tuesday morning. Sunshine will return to the area Tuesday afternoon and we will likely begin an extended period of dry and eventually hot weather. Look for daytime high Tuesday to climb back to the low to middle 90s. A weak front may provide a slight chance for rain Tuesday night. Temperatures behind this front will likely retreat briefly to the upper 80s to low 90s for the last half of next week. Overnight lows will likely dip into the mid to upper 60s. We will likely start another warming trend next weekend.

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