The potential for strong thunderstorms will heavy rain will continue through Thursday. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through Wednesday night. It is now looking warmer and drier by the weekend. Most of next week will be dry with above normal temperatures.
Monday was another stormy day around the ArkLaTex. Temperatures began in the upper 60s. Afternoon temperatures are mainly in the 70s and low 80s. We likely won’t see much change in temperatures Tuesday. Morning lows will once again be in the upper 60s. Daytime highs will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
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Futurecast continues to show more waves of showers and thunderstorms will invade the area in the coming days. The cluster of storms that has moved into the area today will move out of the area Monday evening. We will see quieter conditions during much of Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms will increase once again Tuesday. As of right now, it appears as if the most widespread rain will arrive late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Since this is during the part of the day when the atmosphere tends to be more unstable, a few storms could become severe. The threat of rain will continue off and on through Friday with a gradual decrease in coverage by the time we get to the end of the workweek.
The Storm Prediction Center indicates that our severe weather risk will likely be highest Tuesday and Tuesday night. They show a slight severe weather risk for the western part of the ArkLaTex. Damaging wind and some hail will likely be our biggest concerns, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. As of right now, they also indicate that we have a marginal severe weather risk Wednesday. That means that severe storms are unlikely but cannot be ruled out. Any severe weather Wednesday will be rather isolated. This will also be the case Thursday and possibly Friday.
Heavy rain will continue to be a concern in the coming days. Most models including Futurecast show that we should expect an additional two to four inches of rain over much of the area with the heaviest rain likely over the western half of the area. The National Weather Service forecast for the Red River currently shows a rise in Shreveport up to 26’ by the end of the week. This is several feet below the 30-foot flood stage.
We could see a drier and warmer weather pattern begin to settle in by the weekend. Upper-level high pressure over the SE US will expand to the west over us. This should greatly reduce any threat of rain and bring warmer temperatures. Highs for most of the week will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. We should warm into the mid to upper 80s by the weekend and beginning of next week.