Thunderstorms will move across the ArkLaTex Thursday with several becoming severe.  All severe weather threats will be possible.  An extended period of hot and dry weather will follow with record heat possible by Mother’s Day.

Pinpoint Doppler

Wednesday evening storms?  Most of the area will stay dry Wednesday evening and Wednesday night.  We will have to keep an eye on the northwest corner of the area for storms that try to develop.  They could become severe.  The good news for our area is that the highest severe weather risk this evening and tonight will likely be to the north and west of our area.

36-hour Futurecast forecast (updated every hour)

A stormy Thursday:  Thursday will be an active weather day in the ArkLaTex.  Futurecast shows that thunderstorms will move into the northern half of the area during the morning.  The focus of the storms will gradually shift into the southern half of the area during the afternoon and evening.  We will then see the storms move out of the southeastern edge of the area late Friday evening.   

Click here to see the latest hail and rotation potential from Futurecast

Severe weather risk: Below is the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center showing the extent of the severe weather risks that we will likely face.  Overall, we have an enhanced severe weather risk.  That means that we can expect numerous reports of severe weather.  Damaging wind will likely be the biggest risk with some hail up to quarter-sized possible. Futurecast shows that the chance of hail will probably be highest over the southern half of the area where the storms arrive a bit later.  We will also see the chance for a few tornadoes.  That risk will exist for all of the area but could be higher south of Interstate 30 and highest in E TX and NW LA.    

Severe Weather Risk in the week ahead

Rainfall potential:  Models including Futurecast show that Thursday’s storms will likely bring some heavy rain with one to over two inches of additional rain looking possible.  Some areas could see amounts of below ½”. Others could see amounts approach three inches.   Futurecast shows the heaviest rain over E TX and NW LA, but keep in mind that the heaviest rain could fall anywhere.

Futurecast rainfall potential outlook

Record-breaking heat possible:  Once the storms depart the ArkLaTex Thursday evening we will see the hottest temperatures of the year so far by this weekend.  Highs Saturday will soar into the upper 80s to lower 90s.  We will likely be in the middle 90s on Mother’s Day.  It is possible that we could see several days of record highs starting Sunday.  Temperatures next week will likely stay hot.  Highs will remain in the low to middle 90s.  Overnight lows will be warm in the upper 60s to lower 70s.  It is possible that we could have more than a week without any rainfall.

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