Nicholas nearly stationary; could bring heavy rain to part of the ArkLaTex

Tracking the Tropics

Tropical Storm Nicholas formed Sunday morning over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.  Nicholas will slowly move towards the Texas coast during the next few days and could bring some heavy rain to a small part of the ArkLaTex later this week.

1-hour radar loop

The weekend closed with a mix of sunshine and clouds and some rather hot temperatures Sunday.  Changes are on the way as we will finally see moisture from the Gulf of Mexico return to the area Sunday night.  Futurecast shows clouds increasing over the area Sunday night with a slight chance for a few scattered showers.  The rain will probably increase in coverage Monday with a little thunder possible.  The threat of rain will likely continue Monday night and Tuesday.  We will probably experience more in terms of thunderstorms Tuesday.  

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Tropical Storm Nicholas will slowly strengthen as it moves towards the NNW in the next few days.  It is expected to track very close to the south Texas coast Tuesday with a possible landfall expected Wednesday.  Nicholas will then slowly move towards the north and eventually northeast possibly nearing the ArkLaTex Thursday or Friday.  It is still looking doubtful that the storm will cause any wind issues for our area as it will be much weaker by the time it nears our area.

Our main concern with Nicholas could be the potential for some heavy rain over part of the area.  As of right now, it appears that the heaviest rain from Nicholas will fall over SE TX and Southern Louisiana.  These areas could see rainfall totals of five to ten inches or more.  The heaviest rain in the ArkLaTex is expected over the southern edge of the area where two to nearly seven inches of rain will be possible.  It looks like areas near I-20 will pick up an inch or two of rain. The northern half of the area will likely get less than an inch.  Keep in mind that Nicholas will be a slow-moving system.  If it does take a course further to the north or west and/or arrives sooner, then our rainfall projections will go up.

Thanks to the more tropical air brought by Nicholas, daytime temperatures will be below normal this week.  Highs will likely be in the 80s.  Overnight lows will likely be above normal in the lower 70s.

–Todd Warren  

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