Your ArkLaTex Weather Authority Team

Tropical Depression likely later this week over the Gulf could bring rain to the ArkLaTex this weekend

Weather

Rain chances will stay low and temperatures will stay high for the next several days.  A tropical depression will likely form in the coming days over the Gulf of Mexico and could bring rain to much of the ArkLaTex this weekend.

Tuesday was a mostly sunny, hot, and rather humid day in the ArkLaTex.  Temperatures began in the middle 70s and have warmed back into the low to middle 90s.  Persistence will continue to rule with our temperatures.  Look for lows Wednesday morning to return to the low to middle 70s.  Daytime highs Wednesday will likely return to the low to middle 90s. Normal lows for this time of year are in the lower 70s.  Daytime highs are normally in the lower 90s.

Futurecast shows that most of the area will stay dry through Friday.  Expect mostly clear nights and partly cloudy days during this period.  Temperatures will likely stay above normal for this time of year into the weekend.

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The National Hurricane Center indicates that there is an 80 percent chance that a broad area of low pressure over the SW Gulf of Mexico will begin to move north and become a tropical depression later this week. Global models show this system approaching the coast of Louisiana or TexasFriday and then turning towards the east this weekend.  The latest runs of these models show a more westerly course through our region.  This means that we could see at least an inch of rain over the southeast half of the area with amounts of two to three inches over the southeast edge of the area.

The large area of upper-level high pressure to our west that has been responsible for our hot and dry weather recently will begin to weaken this weekend and next week.  This will allow temperatures next week to return to more normal levels for this time of year.  It also means that the chance for the scattered mainly afternoon thunderstorm will return to the ArkLaTex next week.  Highs will ease into the lower 90s.  Overnight lows will stay above normal in the mid to upper 70s.

If you combine the rain from what could be Claudette with the scattered storms that occur next week, most of the area will see one to two inches of rain in the next ten days.  Two to four inches of rain will be possible over the southeast part of the area that receives more from Claudette. 

Given how wet the ArkLaTex has been recently, we will need to watch the Gulf disturbance very closely.  If it takes a more westerly course through our area then we will receive much higher rainfall amounts.  Stay Tuned!

–Todd Warren  

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