Look for lots of clouds for the next few days with a slight chance for a few scattered afternoon thundershowers. Tropical Depression 3 will likely become Tropical Storm Cristobal. It is looking promising that this system could bring heavy rain to the ArkLaTex early next week.
Latest Weather Authority Forecast:
Tuesday was a mostly cloudy day around the ArkLaTex with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. Any rain around the area Tuesday evening will likely come to an end as temperatures slowly cool down. Expect a mostly cloudy sky Tuesday night. We’ll see overnight lows that will likely stay above normal tonight as we slowly dip into the upper 60s to low 70s. Don’t expect much change in our weather Wednesday. We will likely continue to see a mostly cloudy sky with slightly warmer temperatures. Look for daytime highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Once again we will see a few hit or miss showers or thunderstorm develop Wednesday afternoon that will quickly end Wednesday evening.
Temperatures will likely continue to heat up to some of the hottest of the year so far Friday and Saturday. Look for highs to soar into the low to middle 90s. Overnight lows will warm into the low to middle 70s. Rain cannot totally be ruled out during this time, but the vast majority of the area will stay dry.
That will likely begin to change Sunday. The National Hurricane Center upgraded TD 3 to Tropical Storm Cristobal early this afternoon. This system is forecast to remain fairly steady during the next few days and then begin to move north later in the week. Long-range models indicate that we should expect to see a possible landfall as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane Sunday night into early Monday morning somewhere along the SW Louisiana or extreme upper Texas coast. From there it would move NNW through possibly through parts of our area Monday and Monday night bringing with it the threat for heavy rain and possibly a few brief tornadoes. Given the current model guidance, the tornado threat will be highest to the east of our area. Keep in mind that we are still several days away from this system approaching our area. It is quite likely that the outlook above will change.
As with most tropical systems that affect the ArkLaTex, rainfall will likely be the biggest concern. The one thing that we may have going for us is that Cristobal will be moving fairly quickly through our area. If the outlook mentioned above plays out, we should expect to see anywhere from two to six inches of rain in our area. Right now, it appears that the heaviest rain will fall over the east Given the recent heavy rains in our area, flooding will still be a concern. I’ll have the latest in my nightly live weather update Tuesday evening at 8:30 pm.