Tropical Storm Nicholas has formed over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. According to the National Hurricane Center, hurricane hunters investigating the system indicate that maximum sustained winds are now at 40 mph and slow strengthening is expected as Nicholas slowly moves towards the NNW. The storm will track near and parallel to the south Texas coast before a possible landfall somewhere along the central Texas coast early Tuesday morning.
Nicholas is then expected to slowly move through SE Texas Wednesday and Thursday. The remnants of Nicholas could move into the southwestern part of the ArkLaTex Friday. As of right now, it appears that the heaviest rain during the next week for our area will fall over the southern edge of the region where three to five inches of rain will be possible. The rest of the ArkLaTex will likely see rainfall totals of near an inch or less. There is still a great deal of uncertainty in the ultimate track that the storm will take. It is quite possible that these rainfall projections will go up for all of the area.
Given that Nicholas will probably be a remnant low by the time it makes it close to our area, wind is not expected to cause any widespread impacts for our area. Our main focus should be on rainfall potential given Nicholas’ slow movement.