SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – Tropical Storm Nicholas will make landfall along the Texas coast later today, bringing rain to some areas of the ArkLaTex today, with the main impacts expected to occur Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning.
After Nicholas makes landfall it will begin a long slow turn towards the ArkLaTex as it weakens into a Tropical Depression, then a post-tropical cyclone.
Rain will be the biggest impact to the ArkLaTex and it will be a feast or famine scenario for us. We will begin to see a few scattered showers today as the outer bands begin to move up from the coast. These bands will bring a quick rain shower and a few thunderstorms at times, especially through the afternoon and evening but rainfall accumulations today will be light. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies throughout the day.
The rain will remain scattered tonight and Tuesday morning. As Nicholas approaches Tuesday afternoon we will begin to see some heavier pockets of rain, especially south of I-20 in Texas and Louisiana. Some areas around Toledo Bend Reservoir may see persistent rainfall Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning. Forecast models are still showing some areas receiving over 4 inches of rain, including Sabine and Natchitoches parishes. We do not have a Flash Flood Watch as the ground should be able to handle most of this rainfall without any significant runoff occurring, but isolated flooding of roads in these areas will be possible late Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
The I-20 corridor including Marshall, Shreveport, and Minden will average about 1 to 2 inches of rain, and Texarkana and the I-30 corridor will see accumulations of less than 1 inch. One thing to watch with the forecast track is any push to the north. If the path of Nicholas goes further north it would put more of the ArkLaTex at risk for heavy rain.
Nicholas will be weakening as it makes its turn towards the ArkLaTex Tuesday and Wednesday. The wind speeds will come down after landfall so it may be breezy at times, but wind gusts should remain below 25 miles per hour in most areas so the threat of any tree or power line damage is low.
Sometimes with tropical systems, we do have brief spin-up tornadoes. This will be something we have to monitor Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. This will not be a widespread or significant threat, but something we will be on alert for.
The increase in humidity, cloud cover, and rain will bring warmer mornings this week as we’ll be in the low 70s at sunrise each day. Daytime highs will be cooler, winding up in the low to mid-80s through at least Wednesday.
We should have improving weather conditions late Wednesday through Friday, but the typical Summer storms can’t be ruled out late this week and into the weekend.