Two disturbances will bring the threat of thunderstorms and the potential for some heavy rain. The coldest air of the season so far arrives next week.
Monday was a mostly sunny day around the ArkLaTex with slightly below normal temperatures. Highs have struggled to make it into the low to middle 60s. Warmer air will be streaming into the area Tuesday in advance of a strong disturbance. Most of Tuesday will be dry ahead of this system. Expect a mostly cloudy sky, but with a strong southeasterly wind, temperatures will likely warm into the low to middle 70s for most of the area. Overnight lows Tuesday morning will likely be in the low to middle 40s.
Thunderstorms will become likely Tuesday night as a line will likely develop near or to the northwest of our area. This will begin to move into the area late Tuesday evening and will likely not move out of our area until Wednesday morning. The Storm Prediction Center indicates that there is a ‘marginal’ severe weather risk with is a one on the one to five risk scale. That means that if we have any severe weather it should be isolated in nature. Wind and hail will likely be the biggest concerns. Futurecast indicates that we could see rainfall totals from this system in the range of ½” to 1”. Once the thunderstorms move out of the southern edge of the area Wednesday morning, we will likely see some sunshine return to the area Wednesday afternoon. That sunshine will likely stick around through Thanksgiving Day. Look for highs Thanksgiving Day to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
A second disturbance will then move into our area Friday. This system will likely be a slow mover and consequently will have the potential to drop some impressive rainfall totals. Look for showers and thunderstorms to increase Friday. The threat of rain very well could linger through much of Sunday. Thunderstorms will again be likely, but it does appear that instability will be highest to the south of our area the way it looks right now. That being said, we will likely still have another ‘marginal’ severe weather risk mainly for Friday and Friday night. The biggest concern from this system will be the potential for very heavy rain. Some models indicate that we could see anywhere from three to over seven inches of rain.
Some of the coldest air of the season could be on the way early next week. Sunshine will return to the area Monday. Despite that sunshine, we will likely see highs in the low to middle 50s. That is below normal for January. It appears that much of the area could experience the first freeze of the season Monday night. Overnight lows will dip into the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs should rebound to the upper 50s and lower 60s by the middle of next week. We could see another shot at some rain by the end of next week.