SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSs) – The unseasonably warm and humid weather will return Sunday, followed by a strong cold front Sunday night that could bring a few severe storms to the northern ArkLaTex. This will be the first of two severe weather threats over the next week, as a stronger cold front will bring an additional threat of severe weather Tuesday night into Wednesday.
A warm front has been moving across the ArkLaTex Saturday and that pushed high temperatures into the mid and upper 80s to begin the weekend. The warm air will continue flowing in behind this front tonight bringing a humid and mild October night with lows in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Sunday will begin with mostly cloudy and mild weather, and the clouds will be around for much of the morning but a very strong south wind of 15 miles per hour will develop with gusts as high as 20 miles per hour during the day. This will transport warm and very humid Gulf air over the ArkLaTex with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. The record high in Shreveport is 89 degrees and we could easily tie or break that record if we receive more sun than anticipated.
A very strong area of low pressure will drag a cold front across the country tomorrow and the tail end of this cold front is expected to move into the ArkLaTex Sunday night through early Monday morning. The ingredients for a few severe thunderstorms will develop ahead of this front across the northern ArkLaTex. The Storm Prediction Center has a ‘slight risk’ severe weather outlook, a level 2 threat on the 1 to 5 scale. This means scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly across Oklahoma and Arkansas. These thunderstorms will bring a threat of damaging wind gusts and large hail, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.
Futurecast shows the potential for a few thunderstorms to develop across the ArkLaTex Sunday afternoon, so I can’t rule out rain impacting some outdoor plans Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, but the coverage of any rain and storms will be low during this time. A severe storm can’t be ruled out during the later afternoon or early evening but the primary threat won’t arrive until after sunset.
The main line of thunderstorms that will bring potential severe weather to the threat area along I-30 will be between 9 p.m. Sunday and 3 a.m. Monday. The storms will be weakening and are not expected to be severe if they hold together long enough to cross over the I-20 corridor.
Rainfall accumulations will be less than half an inch in most areas with some locations in the ArkLaTex receiving half an inch to an inch of rain across the northern ArkLaTex. No flash flooding is expected at this time.
We should have breezy and warm weather for most of the day Monday with a low chance of rain Monday afternoon through Tuesday.
A strong cold front is expected to move into the ArkLaTex Tuesday night or Wednesday. The forecast models aren’t in good agreement with the timing of this system, but if the front moves through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning the severe weather threat would be at the lower end of the scale.
A front that doesn’t move through until late Wednesday morning or Wednesday afternoon would have more warm air available for thunderstorms and we would likely bring a high severe weather threat across the entire viewing area. Make sure you are checking back for updates as this will be the main weather story next week.
We will finally get back to Fall following this front with highs falling into the 70s next Thursday through Saturday with lows in the 40s and 50s.