Don’t expect much sunshine for the next several days.  Rain will be confined to the northern half of the area until a cold front moves through Friday night.  Near-record warmth will continue for the next few days.  Christmas Day now looks dry and mild.

So far this December ranks as the second warmest December on record.  It looks like the warm pattern that we have seen for most of this month will continue for the next several days.  Tuesday began with lows mainly in the 50s.  Look for temperatures Tuesday afternoon to end up in the low to middle 70s. It will get even warmer Wednesday.  Lows Wednesday morning will be over 20 degrees above normal as we will only fall into the low to middle 60s.  Despite lots of clouds, highs Wednesday afternoon will likely warm to the mid to upper 70s.

Futurecast shows that we will continue to see lots of clouds over the ArkLaTex Tuesday night.  An isolated shower cannot be ruled out but most of the area will stay dry.  If we have any rain, it will likely be over the northern edge of the area.  Wednesday is looking mainly dry.  We will begin with lots of clouds.  It is possible that we could see a little sunshine mix in with the clouds Wednesday afternoon.  A cold front will approach the northern edge of the area late Wednesday night and will likely bring some showers and thunderstorms.  It is possible that one or two of these storms could reach severe limits with damaging wind being the biggest concern. 

That front will likely retreat back to the north Friday with mainly dry conditions.  It will then slide through the area Friday night and Saturday bringing showers and thunderstorms to all of our area.  As of right now, it appears that instability should be rather limited so severe weather shouldn’t be too much of a concern. 

Since the northern part of the area will see two possible rounds of thunderstorms, it will likely receive the heaviest rain with totals of up to two inches possible.  Most of the rain that falls on E TX and NW LA will occur Friday night and Saturday.  These areas can expect totals of 1/2 to one inch. Cooler air will move into the ArkLaTex behind the front with highs by Sunday dipping into the 50s. Lows will settle into the 30s by the beginning of next week.  

Most of next week is looking dry as we will see another warming trend leading up to Christmas Day.  Look for highs to return to the 70s by the end of the week. The latest trends in the long-range models show that Christmas Day is now looking dry and mild with lows in the 50s and highs in the mid to upper 60s.

-Todd Warren