SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – The dry weather pattern that has resulted in moderate to severe drought developing is about to come to an end, as we have 3 storm systems on the way over the next week which will result in beneficial rain, but also the threat of severe weather arriving Sunday night.
We’ve had some on and off rainfall and isolated thunderstorm activity across the northern ArkLaTex Saturday with highs in the 70s and low 80s. A few rain showers may continue to impact mainly the northern ArkLaTex overnight, but the chance for rain will remain relatively low in most areas over the next 24 hours. We will be under otherwise mostly cloudy skies tonight with lows in the upper 50s and low 60s.
Sunday will be a mostly cloudy day with a breezy south wind developing ahead of our next cold front which won’t impact the ArkLaTex until late Sunday night and Monday morning. It will be quite warm with highs ranging from the low 70s across the northern ArkLaTex to the upper 70s across much of Texas and Louisiana. Rain will be lightly scattered across the northern ArkLaTex during the daylight hours, so outdoor plans look safe from any heavy rain strong thunderstorms during the day Sunday.
The cold front will enter the northern ArkLaTex around midnight late Sunday into early Monday. A line of storms will move across the northern half of the ArkLaTex between midnight and 5 a.m., with storms approaching the I-20 corridor between 4-7 a.m., and rain continuing through the late morning and early afternoon Monday across Toledo Bend.
The Storm Prediction Center has a ‘slight risk’ and ‘marginal risk’ of severe storms for the entire ArkLaTex, level 1 and 2 threats on the 1 to 5 scale, 5 being the most significant severe weather threat. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats, with isolated tornadoes possible mainly in the ‘slight risk’ area between midnight and sunrise Monday. After sunrise Monday the marginal risk of severe weather will continue across the southern half of the ArkLaTex. Make sure you have a way to receive severe weather warnings overnight.
Temperatures will drop off sharply behind the front. Monday high temperatures will occur in the morning when temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s, by the afternoon temperatures will fall into the low and mid-50s with a chilly and breezy north wind gusting up to and possibly over 20 miles per hour.
The cool air will remain in place Tuesday as another front passes through the ArkLaTex bringing a slight chance of showers Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday. With the lack of warm air for thunderstorm development, the threat of severe weather will be low midweek.
We will dry out for a few days Thursday and Friday, with a quick warming trend carrying us into the upper 60s Thursday, and mid to upper 70s by Friday.
The third storm system looks to move in next weekend with an increasing threat for rain and thunderstorms next Saturday. Given then atmospheric ingredients it is likely we will have to watch next Saturday for the threat of severe weather once again.