Warming trend continues with strong to severe storms Friday night

Weather

Despite lots of clouds returning to the ArkLaTex, look for the warming trend to continue with record-highs possible Friday.  Thunderstorms look likely Friday evening and Friday night with severe weather possible.  Sunshine and cooler temperatures return this weekend.

Sunshine returned to the ArkLaTex Wednesday resulting in the beginning of a quick warming trend that will last through Friday.  Temperatures Wednesday began in the 30s and 40s and have returned to the 60s Wednesday afternoon.  Look for the warming trend to continue Thursday despite the return of lots of clouds.  Temperatures Thursday morning will likely begin in the 40s and low 50s.  Expect afternoon highs to reach the low to middle 70s thanks to a breezy south wind.

Futurecast shows that we will likely stay dry Wednesday night and Thursday despite the return of the clouds.  Expect the clouds to quickly return late Wednesday evening and Wednesday night.  We will stay mostly cloudy Thursday.  An isolated shower will be possible but chances are looking very slim at this point.  The clouds will hang around Thursday night and Friday with an increase in the wind.  A strong cold front will approach the area late Friday.  Thunderstorms will likely develop somewhere ahead of the front late Friday afternoon or Friday evening.  

Where these storms initiate will determine the westward extent of any severe weather that we will experience.  As of right now, it appears that the storms will most likely develop somewhere over the middle part of the area and then strengthen as they move east Friday evening and Friday night.  Wind will likely be the most widespread severe weather threat, but hail and a tornado or two will be possible.  The Storm Prediction Center indicates that we have a marginal to slight severe weather risk with the highest risk over the eastern half of the area.

Rainfall potential will vary greatly across the area with amounts well below ¼” over the western edge of the region and amounts of ½ to 1” over the east.  Once this rain ends, it could be a week before any rain returns.  Cooler and drier air will invade the ArkLaTex behind the front.  Highs this weekend will likely be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.  Overnight lows by Sunday morning will retreat to the low to middle 30s. This chilly air won’t stick around very long.  Upper-level high pressure will bring a dry and warmer week next week with highs returning to the 70s and lows warming to the 50s and 60s.  Our next chance of rain will likely hold off until next Friday and Saturday.

-Todd Warren

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