9:45 am Thursday: The severe weather threat is ending, but we will continue to see areas of moderate to heavy rainfall through the morning in deep east Texas, Louisiana, and southern Arkansas.
A few additional pockets of rain may develop this afternoon or evening, but no severe weather is expected, and any accumulations will be light.
Temperatures are in the 50s and low 60s at the moment, and afternoon highs will be in the upper 60s in most areas. A breezy northwest wind will develop behind the rainfall at 15 to 20 miles per hour later in the day.
7:00 am Thursday: We have a few strong storms in Sabine/De Soto parishes. A Severe Thunderstorm Warning is in effect until 7:30 as the storm moves toards Coushatta, and then into Martin. Quarter sized hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible.
6:00 am Thursday Update: We have a few storms moving through northwest Louisiana that are capable of 30 to 40 mile per hour wind gusts, but are below severe limits. Thunderstorms have weakened over the past 2 hours, but may re-strengthen as we move through the morning. Several east Texas and Oklahoma counties have been dropped from the Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
5:00 am Thursday Live Update: Strong to severe storms continue to move across the Arklatex. A severe thunderstorm watch continues for much of the area ahead of the line of storms until 9 am.
3:00 am Thursday Live Update:
Pinpoint Doppler shows the main line of storms to our west is now entering the northwest edge of the area and approaching the western edge. The strongest part of the line continues to be the southern half that is south of I-20. This part of the line will be capable of producing winds of 60 mph and some hail at times. Watch the live update below:
1:20 am Thursday Live Update: Quick update on the new severe thunderstorm watch in effect and the latest trends witnessed on Pinpoint Doppler. Watch the update below:
12:45 am Thursday Update: Radar continues to slow areas of rain with some thunder developing over parts of Northeast Texas, Southwest Arkansas, and Southeast Oklahoma. As indicated in the previous live update, we did have a few severe thunderstorm warnings over McCurtain and Sevier counties, but storms have remained below severe limits for the past hour.
With the exception of a Flash Flood Watch, we currently don’t have any watches in effect. An isolated severe storm or two will be possible for the next few hours, but not enough to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch. The line over North Central Texas continues to move east. The southern part of this line is currently the strongest part. The hail threat has decreased during the past several hours. It now appears that wind and rain will be the biggest concern with the line. Models continue to show that this line will weaken as it approaches our area very late tonight. See the latest regional satellite/radar loop below:
10:50 pm Live Update: Radar shows thunderstorms increasing over the NW edge of the ArkLaTex. SPC is monitoring for a possible severe thunderstorm watch. We have noticed that hail sizes in the storms in C TX have decreased over the past few hours. Tune in for a live update below.
8:30 pm Live Update: Strong to severe thunderstorms are still anticipated across the ArkLatex tonight through tomorrow morning. The Storm Prediction Center indicates that the greatest severe risk will remain to the west of our area. Scattered storms will likely try to develop over the NW part of the area very late this evening. The strongest storms will arrive late tonight and will likely be weakening as they move in. We still have a flash flood threat with one to three inches of rainfall possible. Watch the 830pm live update below:
Tonight, showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase. Some thunderstorms will be on the strong side. Before midnight, we will see some showers and storms around.
The severe weather threat with those storms will be low. After midnight, we will see the severe weather threat increase. Below you can view Futurecast.
Right now, all of modes of severe weather are possible. The biggest threats are damaging winds, large hail, and localized flooding. The tornado threat is low however not ZERO! The storms will begin working into East Texas and Idabel around 11 pm- 2 am. Texarkana, you will see the line between 4-6 am. The line will make it to Shreveport and Northwest Louisiana probably near sunrise. The greatest risk of severe weather will be to the west in the Enhanced Risk. Models are suggesting the line will weaken as it approaches Shreveport. Late in the morning, models indicate the line may restrengthen to the east of the ArkLaTex.
Besides looking at severe weather, we are monitoring heavy rain. Models are indicating rainfall totals between 1-2″ with some heavier amounts. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for most of the ArkLaTex through Thursday evening. With previous rains, it will not take much to produce some flooding concerns.
The Easter weekend is looking great. On Friday, we will see highs into the 60s and 70s. Easter Sunday is looking nice warm and partly cloudy skies. Temperatures into the 80s. Rain is back in the forecast beginning next week.