10:00 a.m. Monday Update:
Our severe weather threat is over, but we will continue to see a few isolated rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two south of I-20 across the Toledo Bend region. Sunshine is now returning to much of the ArkLaTex, and that will continue through the afternoon. See below for high temperatures and the 7 day forecast.
5:00 a.m. Monday Update:
We currently do not have any watches or warnings in effect. Thunderstorms continue to move through south of I-20 in Texas and Louisiana, bringing frequent lightning, brief heavy rainfall, and a few wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mile per hour range. Most of the rain will have come to an end by 8 a.m.
A slow clearing trend will kick in for the remainder of the day leaving us moslty sunny to partly cloudy this afternoon. It will remain quite warm with highs in the 70s and low 80s. A breezy northwest wind of 10 to 15 miles per hour is expected.
A comfortable pattern will take over for the middle of the week with highs in the 60s and 70s. The chance of rain will return late this week into the weekend.
3:30 a.m. Monday Update:
The National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center are unlikely to extend the Severe Thunderstorm Watch that continues until 4 a.m. As of 3:30 a.m. a line of storms was moving southeast crossing the I-20 corridor or Texas and Louisiana. Storms are carrying Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, but have not produced any reports of severe hail or damaging wind in the past hour.
1:00 am Monday Live Update:
Strong to severe storms now moving into the western edge of the Arklatex. Live update on the progress of the storms below:
12:30 am Monday Update:
T’storm Watch in effect for most of NE TX and Miller & Lafayette counties in SW AR. Latest radar trend in the past half hour shows restrengthening along the northern edge of the Arklatex extending back into NC TX. Radar has shown a few cells capable of producing golf ball to tennis ball sized hail just west of our area. See latest radar loop below:
11:00 pm Sunday Live Update:
So far only one Severe T’storm Warning for our area. New storms have developed to our west near and north of Dallas. This activity is moving towards the ESE. This means that the biggest severe weather threat now looks to be south of I-30 in NE TX, NW LA and ETX. Hail still the biggest concern.
930 pm Sunday Update:
Radar shows that much of the t’storm activity to the west of the Arklatex has weakened. Doesn’t mean we are out of the woods but with models indicating that instability will gradually decrease overnight, could be a sign that the process has begun. See the latest radar loop below. Stay tuned!
730 pm Sunday LIVE update:
Storm recently dropped quarter-sized hail in Smithville, OK in McCurtain County. Live update on current radar trends as well as the latest on timing of tonight’s storms.
630pm Sunday Update:
Strong storms are now moving into the northwestern edge of the Arklatex. Storm entering western McCurtain county capable of nickel-sized hail. See the latest NWS warnings and advisories below radar loop.
5:15 pm Sunday Update:
The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch effective until midnight for SW AR, SE OK, and the northern part of NE TX. Storms starting to develop just to the NW of the Arklatex. This activity will likely strengthen as it moves SE this evening.
340 pm Sunday Update:
SPC indicates that Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued in the next few hours before 6pm. The grey area in the map below indicates where the biggest hail threat will exist this evening.
330 pm Sunday Update:
SPC just issued their latest severe weather update for the rest of today and tonight. Not surprisingly, there were no changes. The Arklatex is still rather dry at this time. We will likely begin to see storms develop near or just north and west of the Arklatex between 5 and 6 pm this evening. This activity will gradually move to the southeast this evening and overnight. Still looks like up to golf ball sized hail could be possible in spots. See the latest video update and radar loop below:
12pm Sunday Update:
SPC raises the severe risk level to ‘Enhanced’ due to the increased chances of seeing very large hail across the area. Some storms later this evening and tonight could produce golf ball sized hail or larger. Damaging wind will also be a concern. While the tornado threat still looks very low, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. -TW
8am Sunday Update:
We have a few scattered t’showers mainly over southwest Arkansas. This activity will move out of the area this morning. Most of the day is looking dry. We will then see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop over SE OK and SW Arkansas this evening. This activity will move southeast through the area tonight. Wind and hail still look to be the biggest threats. SPC now has a slight risk area that includes all of NE TX. The storms will likely weaken as they move into E TX and NW LA south of I-20 tonight. See the latest from Futurecast below:
Saturday has been a warm and breezy day with high temperatures in the 70s. A few rain showers will be possible along the I-30 corridor this evening and tonight, with the rest of us remaining dry with fairly mild temperatures.
Daytime conditions Sunday will be much like we saw Saturday, with highs in the low to mid 70s with a sometimes breezy south wind ahead of an approaching cold front.
As the cold front approaches the northern ArkLaTex late Sunday afternoon and evening we may see a few potentially strong to severe storms develop. The Storm Prediction Center has a ‘slight risk’ of severe storms along and north of I-30 in northeast Texas, McCurtain County, and southern Arkansas. Storms will be capable of high wind and large hail. A brief tornado can’t be ruled out but is the lesser of the threats as it stands now.
Furuturecat shows thunderstorms moving south during the night and continuing in east Texas and Louisiana Monday morning. Storms may encounter cooler and more stable air as the approach I-20, so there does not appear to be a severe weather threat south of I-20 at the moment. See the latest 36-hour loop of futurecast below:
Rain should wrap up during the day Monday. Futurecast is showing spotty rainfall accumulations in the half-inch to 1 inch range north of I-20, with lighter accumulations further south. No flooding or heavy rain is expected.
Monday afternoon will turn into a breezy and warm day with highs in the low to mid 70s. The cooler air behind the front will not arrive until Tuesday, but it will only drop highs into the 60s as Spring takes over. Expect dry and beautiful weather through the middle of the week, but another chance of rain will arrive late in the week and into the weekend.