2:45 am severe weather update:
A look at Pinpoint Doppler shows that the severe weather threat has ended for most of the Arklatex. We do still have a line of storms moving over parts of Natchitoches and Sabine parishes. Gusts of up to 60 mph will be possible within this line especially over Natchitoches Parish. The storm that prompted tornado warnings for more than 3 hours over parts of E TX and NW LA has moved out of our area. Towns that were in the path of the possible tornado were San Augustine, TX. Patroon, TX, Converse, LA, Pelican, LA, Coushatta-Edgefield, LA, Martin, LA, Lucky, LA, just south of Grambling, and Ruston, LA. A trained storm spotter witnessed a tornado touchdown in Ruston on Tech drive in the LA Teck campus. The NWS confirms that several windows were blown out at dorms on campus. The tornado also damaged the LA Tech baseball complex.
1:25 a.m. update: A tornado watch is in effect until 6 a.m. for portions of NW Louisiana.
Bienville, Natchitoches, and Sabine Parishes are included in the tornado watch.
Tune in to live coverage below:
10:45 pm Wednesday update: Radar continues to show a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are slowly moving towards the ENE across the area.
As mentioned earlier, the severe weather threat is looking rather isolated tonight. If we have any issues, it would occur over the southern half of the area mainly south of Shreveport. The bigger concern could be a few scattered areas of flash flooding. It is quite possible that the northwest half of the Arklatex could see scattered rainfall reports of more than four inches. You can catch the latest advisories from the NWS below.
8:30pm Wednesday live update: Heavy rain is beginning to move into the northwestern half of the Arklatex. In tonight’s update, we’ll have some good news and bad news. The good news is that SPC has lowered our risk outlook from ‘slight’ to ‘marginal’. The bad news is that we are still going to get lots of rain. It appears as if the heaviest rain will fall over the northwest half of the area. Watch the latest update below and scroll down to see the latest advisories from the NWS.
A few strong storms possible Wednesday night. Rain becomes scattered Thursday. Most of the week ahead looks dry and warm.
Wednesday was a mostly cloudy day around the Arklatex. Most of the area has been dry for most of the day. That will likely change Wednesday night as a disturbance moves out of Texas and into the Arklatex. Expect showers and thunderstorms to increase Wednesday evening and Wednesday night.
The Storm Prediction Center now indicates that we have a ‘slight’ risk for a few scattered severe storms over the southern edge of the area. Most high resolution models including Futurecast have been trending downward as far as the intensity of storms that may move across the area. IF we do see any severe weather, it will likely be near Toledo Bend overnight. Damaging straight line wind will be the main threat. See the latest outlook from Futurecast below.
Another threat with this disturbance will be the potential for some heavy rain. Most of the area can expect to see anywhere from one to two inches. A few isolated spots could see over 3″. Other isolated spots could see less than 1/2″.
The rain will likely become much more scattered in nature Thursday. As temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s, that will fuel the development of some pop up t’showers during the afternoon. These storms will likely not be severe. The upper-level system will clear our area Thursday evening. That will allow for sunshine to return for Friday and Saturday. A few models do now indicate that we could see a little rain Sunday, but most keep us dry. Rain or not, we will warm up this weekend. Look for highs to return to the low 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s. Our next best shot at rain will likely hold off until the end of next week as the warm temperatures stick around. We could see highs in the mid to upper 80s by the end of next week.
Average high/low for today’s date: 79/56.