2:30 pm Update: The line of showers and embedded storms continue moving to the east. The line of storms isn’t producing much lightning. However, some of the storms to the west are producing lightning in the cooler air. The western storms are racing to the northeast. You can view Futurecast and radar here.
A bit of good news as the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch, but it is north of the ArkLaTex and does not include any of our counties and parishes.
They have also taken the I-20 corridor of Louisiana and Texas out of the slight risk outlook, meaning the most favorable areas for a damaging wind gust later today will mainly be confined to the I-30 corridor.
11 a.m. Update:
Thunderstorms are moving into northeast Texas and Oklahoma at the moment. So far we have not had any reports of severe weather, and no watches are in effect. The Storm Prediction Center may put out a Tornado Watch that includes a few of our counties north of I-30 soon.
8:00 a.m. Update:
The strongest storms will likely move northwest of the ArkLaTex, but some of the cells may re-intensify as they move in later this morning and into the afternoon. No watches are in effect at this hour.
We have one day of potential severe weather this week, and today is that day. Look for thunderstorm chances to increase this afternoon and evening, especially north of I-20.
This morning you will be stepping out into a warm, breezy, and humid day. The southeast breeze is already in the 15 mile per hour range this morning, with gusts expected to reach 30 to 35 miles per hour this afternoon. Temperatures are in the low 70s before sunrise, and highs will range from the upper 70s this afternoon to the mid 80s (north to south).
The thunderstorms that triggered the severe weather outbreak in Texas and Oklahoma yesterday have moved northeast, but a developing line of storms is expected to roll in late this morning or early this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center is showing a ‘slight risk’ of severe weather along and north of I-20, with a ‘marginal risk’ extending south to Toledo Bend. High wind is the main threat today, with a secondary threat for large hail. There will also be a chance for a brief tornado, but this is not a strong setup for tornadoes. The highest tornado threat today will exist in northern Arkansas and Missouri.
Storms will increase across east Texas and Oklahoma early this afternoon, then move into Arkansas and Louisiana later this afternoon and evening. As the low pulls north it will slow the progress of the storms and we may have to deal with rain and thunderstorms into the night. I do think the severe weather threat will shut off after sunset in most areas even through rain may linger overnight.
Rainfall accumulations are expected to be in the .5 inch to 1 inch range north of I-20. It’s completely possible some areas south of I-20 will miss the rain and storms completely.
For the remainder of the week we will see high pressure gradually take over. We may have a few light rain showers Wednesday and Thursday, with dry conditions expected Friday through Memorial Day. It will be an early taste of summer as highs will be in the low 90s through this stretch with no chance for any severe weather.