7:30am Wednesday Update: Storms to bring gusty winds and lightning this morning.

Futurecast

7:30 a.m. update:

There will not be a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in the short term as the main line of storms has weakened (a watch could still be issued later today). The outflow from the thunderstorms has triggered scattered storms now impacting Texarkana, much of east Texas and also Oklahoma. We are even seeing some isolated storms pop-up near Shreveport. These will bring gusty winds and frequent lightning. 

6:00 a.m. update:

The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring some areas of the ArkLaTex for a potential Severe Thunderstorm Watch. They list the possibility of a Watch being issued in the upcoming hours at 40 percent. Storms will be capable of high wind gusts as they move into the ArkLaTex this morning. 

5:00 a.m. update: 

As of now we do not have any watches or warnings in effect.

Thunderstorms are now approaching the Dallas/Ft. Worth area, so they are several hours away from the ArkLaTex at the moment. The HRRR model is picking up on the timing well, and shows the strongest portions of the storms into east Texas/Oklahoma at 8-9 a.m. — into Texarkana between 10 a.m. and noon, and into Shreveport in the noon – 1 p.m. window. Some slowing of the main line of storms is expected. These times indicate the most likely hours of any severe weather, there WILL be rain and a few storms that develop in these areas prior to these times. 

Here is the latest timing from futurecast:

It will be a breezy and warm day as well as your high temperatures will be in the low 70s with a south and southeast wind gusting over 20 miles per hour.

1230am Wednesday Update: The first outlook of the day from SPC indicates that we have a ‘slight risk’ for severe weather over the eastern half of the Arklatex.  Wind will be the biggest concern for our area.  The best tornado threat should be to our NE in the ‘enhanced’ area in orange.  Storms now over west Texas should move into the western edge of our area during Wednesday morning. 

 

830pm Tuesday Update:  Thunderstorms now strong to severe over west Texas.  Models continue to show that they will weaken late tonight as they approach our area.   Watch below for a live update from Futurecast and other high-resolution models on the timing of Wednesday’s storms.

Comment below if you have any questions:

 
 

Thunderstorms return Wednesday with some severe possible.  Cooler and drier weather pattern could last more than a week.

Tuesday was a cloudy and mild day around the Arklatex.  Temperatures began in the low to mid-50s and climbed into the 60s.  We didn’t see much of any rain.  Expect that to change Wednesday.  Another strong storm system will move into the middle of the country.  We will see a line of storms develop Tuesday afternoon over west Texas.  This activity will approach the Arklatex late tonight and will likely be weakening as it moves in. The line will move through the western half of the area during the morning.  All indications are that this line will likely not be severe during the morning.  That could change as the line moves east of Shreveport and Texarkana during the afternoon.  Models indicate that the line will strengthen as it moves into the southeastern edge of our area later in the afternoon.  This is where we will see a chance for some severe weather issues. See the latest outlook on storm timing from Futurecast below:

The Storm Prediction Center has now included a slight risk area for the eastern edge of our area.  The main concern will be damaging straight-line wind.  As saw in the video above, Futurecast indicates that the isolated tornado cannot be ruled out within the line as the models show that the atmosphere may begin to support some rotation late in the afternoon and evening over NC & NE LA and SC and SE AR. 

Another minor concern could come from heavy rain.  Futurecast shows that the southeastern edge of the area could receive a quick 1-2″ of rain.  This could cause some isolated and brief flooding issues.  The Weather Prediction Center indicates that this risk is marginal at this time.

Once the storms depart the area, it is possible that new development could form over the southeastern edge of the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  The rest of the Arklatex should see plenty of sunshine for most of Thursday.  Temperatures Thursday will again be above normal with highs in the 70s.  That won’t last long.  The rest of the week ahead looks cooler.  Highs will settle into the 50s and 60s.  Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s.  This cool and dry weather pattern could stick around for most of next week.  

Surprising weather fact:  Believe it or not, Shreveport is more than 2″ BELOW  normal our normal rainfall for 2019!

If you have a question about tomorrow’s storms, comment below:

–Todd Warren

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