830pm Live Update on severe storms possible Wednesday. Futurecast has changed some.

Futurecast

830pm Tuesday live update:

Live weather update 5/7/19 830pm: Still looks like some strong storms and heavy rain headed towards the Arklatex. The latest run of Futurecast just came in with some changes from my live update on Arklatexhomepage.com at 7pm.

7pm Tuesday live update on severe storm and flash flood threat:  

We had a very nice day around the Arklatex today.  Tune in below for a live update on big changes on the way starting tomorrow.  Part of the area could see six to eight inches of rain in the coming days.

Strong to severe storms look likely Wednesday.  A second round of severe storms looks possible Thursday.  Heavy rain will ultimately become a bigger concern.

Tuesday was another rather pleasant day around the Arklatex.  Most of the area stayed dry with enough sunshine to warm temperatures well into the 80s. Things go downhill from here.  Severe thunderstorms will develop late Tuesday/Tuesday evening over West Texas.  This activity will form a complex of storms that will move across the Arklatex during the day Wednesday.  Since it appears that this complex will arrive in the Arklatex during the late morning into the afternoon hours, the Storm Prediction Center indicates that the threat is high enough to warrant an enhanced risk for our area.   Damaging straight-line wind will likely be the biggest concern, but a few reports of large hail and a tornado or two will be possible especially where the line arrives later in the afternoon over the southeastern half of the area.  This complex will move out of the area during the afternoon and then we will take a break. See the latest outlook from Futurecast below:

A cold front will move into the area Wednesday night and Thursday.  This front will bring another round of thunderstorms that could become severe late Wednesday night into Thursday.  Once again damaging straight line will be the biggest concern.  

We will likely see more rain around the area Friday with a few nonsevere storms possible.  Thunderstorms will become more widespread Saturday as another disturbance moves across the area.  While severe storms will be a concern for Wednesday and Thursday, a larger issue could be the potential for some very heavy rain that will likely produce areas of flash flooding.  Models indicate that from now through next Tuesday we could see three to five inches of rain. There will also be a few isolated spots that pick up six to eight inches of rain.

All of this rain will only add to lakes and rivers that are already running high and near flood stage.  below you will find a few preliminary forecasts from the NWS.  Note that these forecasts will likely change once the final rain totals are recorded.  

Average High/Low for today’s date:  80/59.

–Todd Warren

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