As expected, the high pressure ridge is beginning to break down. As a result, we saw a few afternoon thunderstorms in parts of the ArkLaTex. Temperatures are warm into 80s and 90s. Tonight with lots of moisture, lows will only fall into the lower to middle 70s.
Wednesday, a cold front will come into place for thunderstorms. An Enhanced Risk for severe storms is for the northwestern corner of the ArkLaTex.The main threat with this system will be damaging winds and hail. However, we can’t rule out a possible isolated tornado. The dynamics with this system will be important. You can view Futurecast below.
For parts of the ArkLaTex, you may not even see rain on Wednesday. Rain and storms will increase Wednesday afternoon and evening across Southeast Oklahoma and Northeast Texas. Models are showing a squall line to move south along the cold front. After midnight, I believe the severe weather threat will really decrease. The main dynamics will move away from the ArkLaTex allowing the storms to weaken.
Thursday, Northwest Louisiana and Deep East Texas will see a better chance of scattered showers and storms. The front will be the focal point for thunderstorm development. Through next week, rain totals will average 1-2″ with some locally higher amounts.
Following Wednesday’s system, we will see more of a typical summertime pattern with daytime storms daily. A ridge of high pressure may develop over the central part of the United States. If this occurs, we could see rain chances diminish some.