The forecast models aren’t showing much rain, but an incoming cold front could potentially trigger a few late day showers and storms that may continue overnight.
The SPC has us in their ‘marginal’ and ‘slight’ risk outlook, mainly for the potential for high wind and hail. See video for full forecast.
High temperatures later today will warm into the low 80s with another round of rain expected tomorrow, with the last push of heavy rain arriving Saturday.
7:00 a.m. update:
The National Weather Service has extended the Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening. We are likely done with the heavy rain in most areas today, but additional showers and storms will be possible tonight, and again Friday into Saturday morning. The last push of heavy rain will move through Saturday.
5:00 a.m Thursday update:
The heaviest rain is now across northwest Louisiana, with things beginning to taper off across the remainder of the ArkLaTex. A Flash Flood Warning is in effect for Sabine and Natchitoches parishes through 8:30 a.m. There are flooded roadways everywhere, as it is taking time for water to recede. Radar is estimating 5 to 6 inch accumulations in all corners of the region.
We will receive a break from the heavy rain Thursday. There remains the potential for a few pop-up showers or a thunderstorm, with some returning sunshine pushing highs into the low 80s. A cold front moving in tonight will bring returning rain chances overnight, tomorrow, and into Saturday.
12:15 Thursday update: FLASH FLOOD WARNING in effect for parts of ETX, NW LA, and SW AR. Storms have been ongoing for a few hours now. Still no threat of severe, but we do have two bands of heavy rain that have set up. The heaviest has dropped one to over 2″ of rain over parts of ETX. The training of cells within this line spread northeast into northern Caddo and Bossier Parishes in NW LA. The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Warning for this area. A second Flash Flood warning is in effect for northern Webster Parish, and parts of Miller, Lafayette, and Columbia counties. (the green boxes in the map below). These warnings are in effect until 5 am. We will also have to keep an eye on a second band of rain over the southeast part of the area that includes Natchitoches. This area has seen over an inch of rain since it began earlier this evening.
10:45 pm update: Pinpoint doppler shows the advertised redevelopment of thunderstorms has taken place during the past few hours. We currently don’t have any watches or warnings in effect. Wind, hail, and flooding will be the biggest concern during the night tonight. A Flash Flood Watch continues. SPC indicates that we likely will not need a new t’storm watch for tonight. The main issue during the night will be the chance for some hail in spots.
830 pm Live Update: We are experiencing a lull in the thunderstorms across the Arklatex. However, models continue to show new storm development is possible overnight. A front will bring a chance for strong to severe storms across the area tomorrow. Flash Flood Watch is still in effect most of the area.
7:45 pm Update: Good News! The NWS has decided to cancel the tornado watch for our area. Thanks to Firefighter Paul Arnold who captured this video of a funnel cloud near Nesbitt in northern Harrison County, TX northwest of Marshall.