Prepare for a very wet and stormy week ahead. Severe weather threat to increase starting late Wednesday. A month’s worth of rain possible in spots during the next week.
Monday was a mostly cloudy and breezy day around the Arklatex. Temperatures were again above normal. Morning lows were mainly in the low 60s. Daytime highs returned to the upper 70s to low 80s. Don’t expect much change in temperatures during the week ahead, but we will see a dramatic increase in rain. Tuesday will bring mostly cloudy and breezy conditions. Temperatures will begin in the mid to upper 60s. We’ll once again see daytime highs in the low to mid 80s. As of right now, models don’t show much of any thunderstorm activity in our area even though the Storm Prediction Center indicates that we have a marginal risk for the NW edge of our area.
We will probably have to wait until the late Wednesday through Thursday time frame. Futurecast shows a cluster of thunderstorms moving into the western half of the area Wednesday evening. It is possible that some of this activity could pose a severe weather threat with wind and heavy rain the biggest concerns. SPC indicates that we will have a ‘slight’ risk for severe weather mainly over the northwest half of the area.
Look for showers and thunderstorms to continue to overspread the area Wednesday night and Thursday. These storms could also be severe and likely will produce some locally heavy rain. Yet another disturbance will approach the area in the southwesterly flow aloft and trigger more thunderstorms late Friday into the weekend. Severe weather and locally heavy rain will again be possible. Models indicate that two to nearly six inches of rain will be possible especially over the northwest half of the area. This scenario is still subject to change in the coming days as we zero in on the timing and intensity of coming disturbances.
We will also have to pay attention to area lakes and rivers once this week concludes. Expect rises to develop on the Red River over the weekend and into next week. We will know the extent of the rises once most of the rain falls. Stay tuned!
Average High/Low for today’s date: 80/58.