Harvey Update: Heaviest rain to fall SE of Shreveport

Futurecast

Harvey expect to track well east of Shreveport and Texarkana.  Flooding threat probably confined to the southern quarter of the area.  

Tuesday brought lots of clouds to most of the Arklatex as the heaviest of the rain fell to the south  of our area.  That will probably change Tuesday night and Wednesday as Harvey moves from Lake Charles to near Alexandria to near Monroe.  This path is a little more east that projections that I made from yesterday.  Consequently most models have reduced their projections on rainfall for much of the Arklatex.  The European model that has been doing the best job so far now projects less than an inch of rain in Shreveport and points N and W.  It has also reduced the amount project for the southern half of the region.  This is probably a bit of an optimistic outlook.  Our in house model Futurecast still shows up to 3 inches for Shreveport and over 10″ for the southern edge of the area from Center, TX to Natchitoches.  While we do have a Flash Flood Watch in effect for all of NW LA and Shelby and Panola counties in E TX, the main flooding threat will probably be confined to the SE half of the area south of a line from Center  to Coushatta to Arcadia. We also might see an isolated tornado or two over the southeastern quarter of the area, but given the more eastward track of Harvey, that risk is looking rather low.  Another small impact could be the wind.  Look for it to increase to 15 to 25 mph with a few gusts of 35 mph possible.  This could cause power outagaes but they should be rather isolated.

Conditions will improve Wednesday night through Thursday as Harvey moves away from our area.  We could see a few pop up showers or thunderstorms on the back side of Harvey’s cirulation Thursday thanks to some sunshine that will likely mix in with the clouds during the afternoon.  We’ll then see dry and warmer conditions Friday through the weekend.  Highs will return to the upper 80s to low 90s.  Lows will stay in the 70s.  

In terms of its impact on the Arklatex, Harvey could be similar to the conditions that we experience with T.S Cindy that moved through the area earlier this summer.  Stay tuned for the latest as this outlook could change once we see how the feeder bands produced by Harvey set 

up.

–Todd Warren

 

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