It is setting up to be a mostly cloudy, warm, quiet Monday. Enjoy the calm conditions today as it set to be an active weather week that will eventually bring a few chances for severe weather and also heavy rainfall.
This morning the comfortable April temperatures roll on as most of us are in the low to mid 60s under partly cloudy skies. We will likely stay partly to mostly cloudy for much of the day with a south wind of 10 miles per hour and highs in the low to mid 80s.
Futurecast is hinting at a few very light rain showers developing at times today. See the latest 36-loop below.
Things start changing tomorrow as a south wind will begin to pump extra juicy air off the Gulf in our direction. A series of upper level disturbances will roll in during the week and interact with this humid and unstable air to produce scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms.
Disturbance #1 will swing through late Tuesday into early Wednesday bringing a chance for strong to severe storms mainly north of I-30. High wind will be the primary threat with a secondary threat of large hail, and a low end threat for a tornado.
This threat will re-intensify during the day Wednesday which is why the SPC has placed much of the region in the ‘marginal’ to ‘slight’ risk for strong to severe storms.
Disturbance #2 will roll in Thursday bringing widespread thunderstorms. This might be the day we see the heaviest rain as well.
Forecast models are in good agreement that a corridor of heavy rainfall will set up across the northern ArkLaTex resulting in the 3 to 5 inches of rain between now and next weekend. Less certain is the amount of rain that will fall further south. Either way we will be looking at a potential flash flood threat this week, as well as continued rises on already high running rivers and lakes.