Monday will bring us partly cloudy and borderline hot temperatures, followed by a quiet start to Tuesday.. but the weather pattern will blast us with rain and a few days of potential strong/severe storms for the remainder of the week.
This morning we are in the upper 50s and low 60s. There is some rain north of the ArkLaTex, and a few showers north of I-30 that will fizzle out in the upcoming hours. We are expected to remain partly cloudy today with highs in the low and mid 80s.
A ridge of high pressure to our east, and an area of low pressure to our west will bring high rain chances Tuesday night through at least Saturday. This is a pattern similar to what we saw last week, where the conveyor belt of rain making disturbances between the high and low move over the ArkLaTex and tap into rich Pacific and Gulf moisture to produce repeated rounds of rainfall.
As of now the severe weather is ‘enhanced’ to ‘slight’ on Wednesday. This is a level 2 and 3 threat on the 1 to 5 scale. High wind will be the primary threat Wednesday with a secondary threat for large hail and an isolated tornado. Timing is uncertain, but it looks an afternoon or evening arrival. The severe weather threat will likely be with us again Thursday.
The larger issue this week may be the potential for flash flooding. Forecast models are showing 4 to 6 inch amounts in most areas with isolated spots up to or over 8 inches. The corridor of heavy rain may be along or south of I-20. This will probably lead to Flash Flood Watches later this week, and further rises on lakes and rivers putting many into flood stage.
Here are the latest Red River levels: Red River Summary