We haven’t seen much in the way of rainfall so far this Saturday, but a few isolated showers are popping up this afternoon. Some of the short range forecast models are showing a small line of showers and thunderstorms developing late tonight across southern Arkansas. Most areas will stay dry through tomorrow afternoon.
For Sunday, expect sunrise temperatures in the 70s under partly cloudy skies. A weakening line of thunderstorms may approach northeast Texas and Oklahoma in the morning, but it will likely fizzle out before reaching the ArkLaTex. The remnant outflow from the dying storms may serve as the trigger for scattered storm development Sunday afternoon and evening. Given the expected late arrival of the rain Sunday highs will be in the low to mid 90s with heat index values exceeding 100 degrees in some areas due to the high humidity. Clouds and earlier rainfall arrival will hold the northern ArkLaTex in the 80s.
Thunderstorms are expected to increase late Sunday into early Monday as a upper level disturbance drives a cold front into the ArkLaTex. A few of the storms could produce high wind gusts and the Storm Prediction Center has much of the region in its ‘marginal risk’ outlook for severe storms both Sunday and Monday.
Rain will likely be ongoing early in the day Monday. As the atmosphere warms up and recharges an additional round of rain/storms may develop during the day and continue into Monday night. Rainfall amounts at most may be in the 1 to 1.5 inch range, with the highest totals north of I-20.
The front will move south of the ArkLaTex during the day Tuesday bringing a clearing trend. A north wind behind the front will cut off the oppressive Gulf humidity and bring drier air to the region for the middle of the week. This will keep our temperatures in check, as afternoon highs will be at or slightly below normal Tuesday through early next weekend. Overnight lows will drop into the 60s several nights next week.