Severe Wx Update: 4:10 pm Saturday


4:10 pm Saturday Update:   All severe thunderstorm and tornado watches have expired.  We do have a few scattered storms still ongoing over the southeastern edge of the area.  This activity will soon move out of the region.  Expect a mostly clear sky tonight with cooler temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s.  Cloud return for Sunday.  Below is a auto updating loop of Pinpoint Dopper:

7:40 a.m. Saturday Update:

An updated Severe Thunderstorm Watch now includes all counties/parishes along and north of I-20 until 3 p.m. Wind, hail, and a tornado or two will be possible in the Watch area. 

5:30 a.m Saturday Update:

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for several counties in northeast Texas, and Oklahoma until 11 a.m. Large hail will remain the main threat with any storms in the watch area in the upcoming hours. Additional watches may be on the way as we move through the morning. 

3:15 a.m. Saturday Update:

The Storm Prediction Center indicates there is an 80 percent chance of a Watch being issued in the upcoming hours that may include much of the ArkLaTex region. Storms that initially form may pose a wind/hail threat, but the potential for a few tornadoes will also exist. Any tornado threat that occurs would likely be in the hours after sunrise as temperatures begin to warm. 

12:30 am Saturday Update: SPC continues with slight risk outlook for most of the Arklatex Saturday.  Main threats will be wind and hail.  Tornado risk slightly higher over the northern half of the area.   Storms are beginning to form between Ft Worth and Abilene.  See the latest SPC outlook below:

Here is the latest Satrad Loop and Futurecast outlook:

830pm Update:  Latest from Futurecast and other models on the potential timing of Saturday morning storms.  Futurecast is faster than most models.  Wind and hail continue to be main concerns but a tornado cannot be ruled out. See the latest update below and check back tomorrow morning as storms move into the area.

420pm Update: 

Quick live update below on what to expect from Saturday’s morning storms.  

1pm Update:  SPC updates Saturday’s severe risk and trims the southern part of the area out of the slight risk zone.  Wind and hail will be the biggest threat for our area tomorrow morning.  Scroll down in this article to compare to earlier forecast.

Here is the latest outlook from Futurecast.  It updates every hour:

This morning a warm front is moving across the region and we are waking up to comfortable temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s. We do have some areas of patchy to dense fog that may linger through sunrise, then It will turn into a breezy and warm day. Expect highs in the low to mid 70s.

The warm air is setting the stage for our potential severe weather that appears on track to arrive in the hours close to sunrise tomorrow, and continue through early Saturday afternoon. See the latest loop of futurecast below. It appears the storms will enter northeast Texas/Oklahoma just before sunrise, into Texarkana after sunrise, and into Shreveport around 9-10 a.m. This timing could change so check back with the latest loop of futuercast below. 

The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight a ‘slight risk’ or a level 2 threat on the 1 to 5 scale. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats, with a narrow window for a few tornadoes as well. The tornado threat will be highest just east of the ArkLaTex. 

We should dry out late Saturday, and be dry for most of the day Sunday with comfortable temperatures through the weekend.

Next week looks like a rainy one with a decent chance of rain Monday through Thursday. Temperatures will remain in the 60s and 70s. 7 day rainfall totals look to be in the 2 to 4 inch range.

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