Strong to severe storms possible Thursday and this weekend


Strong to severe storms to invade the Arklatex Thursday.  Several rounds of strong to severe storms possible this weekend. Warmest air of the year so far could develop by the middle of next week.

Wednesday was another pleasant day around the Arklatex.  The day began with lots of sunshine and ended with an increase in clouds.  Look for those clouds to begin to drop some rain Wednesday night.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop after midnight.  There is a very low chance that a few of these storms could produce some hail up to quarter size.  Most of any hail that we experience tonight should be below severe limits. That will likely change starting very late Thursday morning.  More scattered showers and thunderstorm will develop in the middle of the area near the TX/LA state line.  This activity will strengthen as it moves east through the eastern half of the area Thursday afternoon.  The Storm Prediction Center indicates that there is a slight risk, or two on the one to five risk scale, that we could experience severe weather.  Damaging wind and large hail up to golf ball sized will be possible mainly east of Shreveport and Texarkana.  A tornado or two will also be possible over the eastern half of the area.  The storm threat will continue through Thursday evening when a few more storms try to develop during the evening over ETX and NW LA. These two could be on the strong side.  See the latest outlook on the timing of the storm with Futurecast below:

We’ll take a brief break from the thunderstorm threat Friday with a mostly cloudy sky and just a slight chance for some rain. The threat for strong to severe storms will likely return to the area Saturday.  As of this writing, it appears that we could see two rounds of storms.  One very late Saturday morning through the afternoon.  A second wave of storms could move through the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning.  There is still a lot of disagreement in the models on the timing of this weekend’s activity.  That is why SPC has yet to indicate the severe threat for this weekend.  We will know more on what to expect and when to expect it as the weekend gets closer.  We will also have to keep an eye on Monday and it is possible that some rather cold air aloft could drift over us creating the threat for more thunder.  This doesn’t appear to be a big concern at this time. 

Another concern in the coming days could be rainfall.  Models indicate that anywhere from two to four inches of rain could occur over much of our area.  

Once this second strong disturbance clears the area, expect some of the warmest air of the year so far for the middle of next week.  Daytime highs will climb to the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will settle into the mid to upper 50s.

Average High/Low for today’s date: 74/50

–Todd Warren

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