Strong to severe storms possible Wednesday

Futurecast

One more relatively dry day Tuesday.  Rest of the week looks stormy and very wet with rainfall amounts similar to last week.

Monday was a pleasant day around the Arklatex.  Thanks to plenty of sunshine, temperatures soared into the middle 80s. Expect a mix of sunshine and lots more clouds Tuesday.  Most of the area will likely stay dry as the best shot for any t’storm activity will likely be confined to the western edge of the area.  Temperatures Tuesday will begin in the low to mid 60s.  We’ll again see daytime highs in the mid 80s.

Things go downhill for the rest of the week.  Expect a round of strong to severe storms to move through the area sometime Wednesday.  The Storm Prediction Center indicates that we will have an enhanced risk for severe weather with all severe weather threats possible. 

We will then see a front ease its way into our area Thursday.  This front could bring another round of strong to severe storms Thursday.  SPC already indicates that we have a ‘slight’ risk for severe weather.  

Another perhaps bigger concern with this week’s weather set up is that the front mentioned above will stall somewhere in our region.  Models now indicate that the stall will be to the south of the Arklatex.  That would reduce the worry for severe storms in our area, but will still allow for several periods of showers and thunderstorms including heavy rain.  WPC indicates that rainfall totals for the week could exceed seven inches wherever the front stalls. We can expect rainfall totals in the three to six inch range with the heaviest amounts over the southern half of the Arklatex closer to where the front stalls.  

Keep in mind, this is not set in stone.  If the front stalls further north, then we would experience the heaviest rain. No matter how much rain we get, Flooding concerns will develop along area lakes and rivers. All are already running high with the Red River forecast to crest near flood stage.  It is expected to fall as the rain begins, but will likely jump above flood stage in Shreveport by this weekend or early next week.  The ultimate final crest level will greatly depend on where the heaviest rain falls. We will know more about how high rivers could get once the rain ends.  See the latest river and lake forecasts from the NWS here.

Average High/Low for today’s date: 82/60.

–Todd Warren

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