Tornado watch in effect until 7 p.m.


Tornado Watch for the southern half of the ArkLaTex until 7 pm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the counties and parishes in yellow until 3 pm.

10:15 am Saturday Live Update:

10:00 am Saturday Update:  SPC indicates that the atmosphere is becoming more supportive of more organized severe storms over ETX and eventually NW LA.  A Tornado Watch will likely be needed soon.  Strong storms now NE of Shelbyville, TX capable of at least golf ball sized hail.  Headed towards Logansport and Joaquin.  Another live update coming soon.

8:30 am Saturday LIVE Update:  SPC has just released their latest convective outlook for today and it shows no significant change from the previous release.  A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of SW AR and Bowie County in NE TX.  Below is a live update on latest model outlooks.

6:30 am Saturday Update:  The Storm Prediction Center continues to include a moderate risk for severe storms for much of the Arklatex.  I mentioned at the end of the 10pm newscast that things might be shifted a little to the south.  You can see from the map of today’s convective outlook that Shreveport is no longer in the moderate risk area.  That does not mean that we are out of the woods.  It only indicates that track of the low pressure system today may be a little further to the southeast than indicated by the models yesterday.  Given the latest model data available overnight. I don’t expect much change to the outlook this morning.  

You can see from the loop of Pinpoint Doppler above that we already have some showers and a few strong storms over the area.  Most of the rain is headed towards the north.  A cluster of strong to severe storms is headed through Claiborne Parish. 

A loop of Futurecast below shows that the stronger storms will likely develop later this afternoon mainly over the southeast half of the area in Deep ETX and NW LA. Stay tuned for a live update on today’s weather scenario later this morning.

830pm Friday: Watch below for…… 1. The latest on the timing of Saturday’s thunderstorms. 2. A look at where models show the best support for rotating storms will be. 3. Futurecast’s outlook on potential hail size. 4. Part of the area could receive 2-3″ of rain. Details on where.

2:30 pm Friday:  Not much has changed in the severe weather outlook expected for Saturday.  In the latest thunderstorm outlook issued by the Storm Prediction Center, they have maintained the ‘moderate’ risk for much of the Arklatex for an outbreak of severe storms expected for Saturday afternoon.  A moderate risk means that we will have the potential of seeing several tornadoes with a few strong EF2+ tornadoes.  In addition to the tornado threat, we could also see numerous reports of damaging wind.  Large hail will also be a concern.  As of right now, it appears that the risk will be highest over northwest Louisiana including Shreveport-Bossier City and southern Arkansas east of Texarkana.  The main window for severe weather will begin to open at noon, reach its peak by mid-afternoon and then slowly close late tomorrow afternoon.  By 6 pm most of the stronger, tornado capable storms will shift to the east of our area.  A second wave of storms could develop to our east Saturday evening.  These, if they do develop, could pose a wind and hail threat. Watch the video above for detail on where the atmosphere will best support rotating storms and possible hail.  See the latest timing from this continuously updated 36-hour outlook from Futurecast below. 

Another threat tomorrow could be some very heavy rain.  Futurecast indicates that we could see anywhere from one to three inches of rain.  Right now, it appears that the rain threat will be highest over the northern half of the area where the storms will be more persistent and less scattered in nature.

Check back to this article for a live update on Saturday’s severe weather risk this evening at 830pm.

–Todd Warren

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