We have 2 distinct weather themes over the next 24 hours. The daylight hours Wednesday will be warm, cloudy, with a few lightly scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two. A severe weather will move in late tonight through Thursday morning.
Today (This morning through sunset):
Clouds have blanketed the region overnight and a steady south wind of 10 miles per hour is bringing mild weather conditions. Temperatures will be in the low 60s at sunrise and warm into the mid and upper 70s this afternoon. Expect the south wind to continue to be breezy at times at 10 to 15 miles per hour. We may see a few scattered showers and thunderstorms during the day, but the severe weather threat is low before sunset.
Tonight and Thursday morning:
Thunderstorms will develop in central Texas this afternoon/evening and move towards the ArkLaTex after sunset. The SPC continues to highlight an ‘enhanced risk’ for severe storms along the I-30 corridor, meaning numerous severe storms will be possible, a few intense. Large hail, up to golf ball sized, will be the initial primary threat late tonight. We will transition to more of a high wind and flood threat overnight. We may see the possibility of a brief spin-up tornado, but long track or strong tornadoes aren’t expected.
The latest timing of futurecast shows storms moving into northeast Texas and Oklahoma between 9 p.m and midnight, into Texarkana at 2-4 a.m.. and into the Shreveport area between 3 and 5 a.m. Keep in mind the timing could shift a little in either direction. (The latest 36-hour loop of futurecast is below)
It is possible storms will intensify or reform Thursday morning, so the severe weather threat for high wind and hail will carry into Thursday. The SPC has a ‘marginal risk’ and small ‘slight risk’ for areas mainly south of I-20 Thursday.
The other threat is for heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding to develop. Forecast models continue to show several corridors of 2 to 3 inch accumulations (yellow area below).
The National Weather Service has a Flash Flood Watch in effect this evening through tomorrow evening. Recent heavy rainfall will contribute to quick runoff where the heaviest rain falls. Flooded roadways are a big concern for the Thursday morning commute.
Drier air will move in late Thursday setting up a pleasant Friday, and a warm and dry Easter weekend.