The story of the next 7 days will be rain, rain, and more rain.
A warm front is moving north across the region this evening bringing a few showers across the northern ArkLaTex. Behind the front this evening and into tonight we will see temperatures warm, so as we head through the overnight hours expect temperatures that are now in the 50s to warm into the upper 50s and low 60s.
A strong south wind will develop on Monday, pulling moisture rich Gulf air into the region which will set the stage for our heavy rainfall this week. We won’t see much rain Monday, but there will be a chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm at times. Overall most areas will be mostly cloudy during the day with highs in the 70s and low 80s. The south wind will be a sustained 15 to 20 miles per hour, with gusts at times over 25 miles per hour.
(Monday afternoon forecast highs):
A slow moving cold front will arrive Tuesday, and we will see rain and thunderstorms along the front across east Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Arkansas during the afternoon, with rain pushing into the remainder of the ArkLaTex late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Several inches of rain will be possible Tuesday evening through Wednesday as the front stalls or slowly inches south across the region.
The frontal boundary will remain stalled across the region for much of the week with a series of disturbances moving along the front and triggering rounds of rain and thunderstorms Thursday through next weekend. If there is a break from the rain, it appears it could be Thursday, but at this point i’m not too optimistic the drying trend will last.
Over the next 7 days it looks like the heaviest rain will be across the northern ArkLaTex where forecast models are showing 6 to 10 inches of rain during that time frame. Even the southern half of the ArkLaTex could see 7 day rainfall accumulations over 3 inches.
(European model forecast rainfall through next Sunday):
(GFS model forecast rainfall through next Sunday):
Due to the ongoing drought and the fact the rainfall will be spread out during the week, we don’t anticipate any widespread flooding or flash flooding issues. That said, there may be isolated flash flooding of streets and drainage areas due to the expected high rainfall, especially across the northern ArkLaTex.
Although thunderstorms will be persistent through the week, we will see very little threat for severe weather.