A typical August weather pattern is playing out this afternoon and will continue through Tuesday. For Sunday evening, we have seen a few showers pop up along I-20 in northwest Louisiana, these are drifting north, so we may see isolated short lived thunderstorms continue through sunset mainly across Louisiana and southern Arkansas. Overnight lows will fall into the low and mid 70s.
For Monday, it will be a mostly sunny start to the day with partly cloudy skies developing as we warm up through the early afternoon. A few isolated showers or a thunderstorm or two will be possible, but overall coverage of the rain will be in the 10 to 20 percent category. Afternoon highs will be similar to the weekend, topping out in the mid 90s in most areas.
Tuesday will be a repeat of Monday, but we will begin to see the changes arrive early Wednesday.
A cold front will dip south out of the central Plains, and we may see rain and thunderstorms arrive early Wednesday across northeast Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Arkansas, where temperatures will begin to cool. The front will move south with the speed of a snail, so we may remain dry Wednesday across much of Louisiana and east Texas. The front will stall across the middle of the ArkLaTex Thursday into Friday. We will see scattered to widespread rain develop these days. As of now there doesn’t appear to be much of a severe weather threat, but with any summer front, we often see storms that bring high wind and frequent lightning.
This front will bring much needed beneficial rain to the region, and also cooler temperatures. Highs will be in the 80s in many areas Wednesday through Saturday. The European and American forecast models are in good agreement that we will see widespread rain accumulations through next Sunday in the 2 to 3 inch range, with a few areas picking up accumulations higher than that. The ‘bullseye’ for the rainfall still appears to be north of I-20 somewhere, but will likely drift around in future model runs.
This rainfall may help to put a dent into ongoing extreme and severe drought, as well as alleviate some of the burn bans and fire restrictions that are in place.
Rain will taper next weekend, but it won’t be completely out of the forecast as will continue to see the potential for scattered thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.