Monday was a mostly cloudy and breezy day around the ArkLaTex. Morning low ranged from the upper 50s to the middle 60s. Daytime highs climbed into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
A strong disturbance will move through the area Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Temperatures Wednesday morning ahead of the front will be rather mild with lows mainly in the middle 60s. Daytime highs Wednesday ahead of a band of storms will climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
This disturbance will bring a good chance for some strong to severe thunderstorms. The associated cold front will move into the northwest edge of the area during the morning. This activity will likely begin to strengthen late in the morning as it moves into NE TX and SW AR. That strengthening will likely continue Wednesday afternoon and evening as the storms move southeast into E TX and NW LA. Futurecast shows the main line of storms moving out of the area late Wednesday evening.
The concern for severe weather will likely be highest over the southeastern third of the area mainly in NW LA and Deep East Texas. As of right now, the Storm Prediction Center indicates that we have a ‘slight’ severe weather risk. That risk could be higher over the eastern and southeastern edge of the area mainly east and southeast of Shreveport. All severe weather threats will be possible including gusts to 70 mph, up to golf ball-sized hail, and a few tornadoes.
Flooding will not be too much of a concern as models show that most of the area will receive less than one inch of rain. We could see a few areas receive one to two inches of rain where the storms are stronger during the afternoon and evening.
Click here to see the latest hail and rotation potential from Futurecast
We will take a pause in the rain Thursday with the return of some sunshine. A second disturbance will bring another chance for some thunderstorms Friday and Friday night. Severe weather will again be possible as some models do show a rather unstable atmosphere could be in place. We will know more details on the timing of Friday’s storms and the extent of any severe weather threat as we get closer. Just be aware that it will be a possibility.
The weekend should be rather pleasant. We should see plenty of sunshine both Saturday and Sunday. Loof for highs to mainly be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s. Yet another disturbance could bring some showers and thunderstorms late next Monday. We should cool down some for the rest of next week with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
–Todd Warren
