Thunderstorms return to the ArkLaTex Friday afternoon with severe weather expected. We dry out and warm up this weekend. A stronger disturbance could bring more severe weather by the middle of next week.
Thursday was a partly to mostly cloudy day around the ArkLaTex. Temperatures began in the 40s with afternoon temperatures climbing into the 60s and lower 70s. With clouds on the increase, temperatures Friday morning will not be as chilly with lows in the middle 50s. It will be warmer Friday with highs ranging from the 60s north to the mid to upper 70s south.
A strong disturbance will approach the ArkLaTex from the west Friday and will create thunderstorms that could become severe. Futurecast shows the storms developing a little west of our area Friday afternoon. This activity will strengthen as it moves across our area late Friday afternoon and especially Friday evening. The severe weather threat will gradually end from west to east late Friday evening and Friday night.
The Storm Prediction Center indicates that we will have a slight severe weather risk as of this writing. It is quite possible that we could see an enhanced risk for part of our area especially East Texas and Northwest Louisiana. All severe weather threats will be possible. Futurecast and other high resolution models continue to indicate that the tornado threat could be highest over E TX and NW LA near and south of Interstate 20.
There is also a chance for some isolated flooding in low-lying areas. I would expect that most of the area will receive anywhere from one to two inches of rain. Where the storms are strongest a few isolated areas could receive anywhere from two to four inches.
Once this system clears, we should see the return of some sunshine for much of Saturday. Sunday and Monday will feature lots of sunshine and warmer temperatures. Look for lows to be in the 50s. Daytime highs will eventually soar into the low to middle 80s.
With this warmer and more humid air in place, a second disturbance will approach the area from the west Tuesday. Models are still split on the exact timing of this next round of storms. Most indicate that our main threat will be Tuesday night and Wednesday. It is possible that storms could arrive as soon as Tuesday afternoon. So far, SPC does not have a severe risk area in our area because of the model inconsistency. But with the degree of instability that all models are showing, more severe weather is looking somewhat promising.
Once this system moves to our east, we should settle back into a pleasant weather pattern that should last into next weekend. Highs late next week will be in the 70s and 80s. Lows will be in the 50s. It is possible that we could see our next chance of showers and thunderstorms by the end of next weekend.